Daily Commentary
4/18/24
Wheat futures are higher this morning with CHI up 6, KC up 9, and MN up 9. Row crops are more subdued with Corn unchanged to lower, and Beans down 5. Canola futures are slightly mixed with May down a fraction and July up 1. Paris wheat futures are up about 2 Euros.
The U.S. Dollar is higher, Wall Street is mixed, Crude is higher, and Gold is higher.
The weekly export sales report was out this morning. Wheat sales were a little disappointing with -93,600 mt for 23/24, and 222,000 mt for 24/25. Traders were expecting to see 100,000-600,000 mt. White wheat sales came in at 36,000 mt, all as old crop. Indonesia was the featured buyer at 27,000 mt. HRW were at 15,500 mt for old crop and 58,400 mt for new crop. HRS sales came in at -12,100 mt for old crop, and 115,7000 mt for new crop. Weekly corn sales were at 501,200 mt for 23/24, and 65,5000 mt for 24/25. Traders were estimating 350,000-1,100,000 mt. Colombia was the main buyer with 273,700 mt reported for old crop. Soybean sales were reported at 485,800 mt for 23/24, and 263,200 mt for 24/25. Traders were expecting to see 300,000-1,100,000 mt. The USDA announced a private sale of 138,000 mt of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines this morning.
Traders reported that an estimated 50,000 mt of Aussie feed wheat was picked up by some Filipino buyers. Japan was in overnight for 60,340 mt of Canadian red, 19,060 mt of U.S. HRW, and 15,212 mt of U.S. white wheat. There was an estimated 50,000 mt of mill grade wheat being purchased by a group of South Korean flour mills.
BAGE estimates Argentina's wheat planting area at 5.9 million hectares for 24/25.
Wheat futures continue to be trading the weather models, and will continue to do so until we get some fundamental support or pressure to break away from weather.
Local cash markets were under pressure on Wednesday after exporters were down on bids with the weaker futures board. Fundamentally the world price of wheat remains under pressure due to the amount estimated to be coming out of the Black Sea region this upcoming year. A weather threat to the Russian crop that would cause that country to put on an export quota would definitely help get support under the market. Looking at getting into an HTA over the December 2024 contract at $6.20+ might be a good marketing strategy to consider if cash is going to stay down.
Corn futures are lower after a round of rains moved through the corn belt yesterday.
Soybeans are being pressured by good weather for planting and farmer selling in South America.
Updated precipitation outlook, courtesy of CHS, Inc.
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MARKETS
MORNING FROM 9:30 - 11:10 A.M.
AFTERNOON FROM 2:30 - 4:30 P.M.
NO AFTERNOON MARKET ON FRIDAY
NON-HARVEST OFFICE HOURS
MON-THURS 7:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.
FRI 7:30 a.m. - 11:30 a.m.
CURRENT PROTEIN SCALES
DNS: +.04/-.08 PER 1/4% BASIS 14%
HRW: +.05/-.10 PER 1/2% BASIS 11.5%